Project 2:
Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project
The groups efforts around the modelling of past climates occur within the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4). Dr Brierley have a special responsibility for fostering research that crosses many different time periods and draws quantitative links to the future climate. PMIP is one of the longest running components of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) - which provides the climate projections for the influential IPCC assessment reports. PMIP involves over 200 researchers and over 20 different modelling centres across the globe. Within the CMIP6 protocol, there are five different experimental protocols (18) defined for different time periods in Earth’s history.
OACD led the primary research paper for one of these experiments, the midHolocene, which was a collaboration between 17 different modelling centres and the palaeodata community to present and evaluate the simulations. We also played a key role in the primary research paper describing the last interglacial experiment: lig127k. We also organised and made a vital contribution to the PMIP4 analysis of ENSO the only multi-experiment, multi-model PMIP4 paper published in time to be considered by the IPCC for AR6. These represent only the headline studies from the PMIP4 project – well over 100 papers were published from the previous iteration of the project and it has expanded since.
Our group hosted a workshop at UCL to kick-off a PMIP Variability Working Group (PalaeoVar) in 2012. For PMIP4, there was a consolidation of the existing working groups and Chris became co-chair of the past2future-variability working group. A small workshop at UCL in 2019 focused on analysing and writing up PMIP4 results in time for inclusion in the upcoming IPCC report. This UCL workshop has resulted 4 papers published. To enable this, the group have invested time in developing the software for an efficient workflow to perform some standard analyses of the 100s of TB of available experimental data output. This has led to UCL being considered expert in the practical elements of the analyses. Through our research activity with PMIP, both Chris and Anni are contributing authors to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Assessment Report 6.
- Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., et al. (2020). Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations. Climate of the Past, 16(5), 1847-1872. http://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020
- Brown, J. R., Brierley, C. M., An, S. I., Guarino, M. V., Stevenson, S., Williams, C. J. R., . . . Zheng, W. (2020). Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models. Climate of the Past, 16(5), 1777-1805. http://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1777-2020
- Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brady, E. C., Zhao, A., Brierley, C. M., Axford, Y., Capron, E., … Zheng, W. (2020). Large-scale features of last interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for CMIP6-PMIP4. Climate of the Past, 17, 63–94,. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-63-2021