Climate change projections by constituency over Great Britain

These projections are taken from the Met Office's UKCP18 dataset. They represent the change in the climate for the years 2051-2080 (so roughly 2065) compared to 1981-2010. These change are the average of an 'ensemble' of climate models with different physics that are then downscaled to an spatial grid of 12km. The projections use a scenarios of global carbon emissions called RCP8.5, which thankfully we are currently not following. The changes that are currently available to look at are:

• annual mean change in rainfall (in mm/day)
• annual temperature change in oC
• difference in the number of days experiencing drought per year
• change in amount of rain falling over the wettest 5 days of the year (in mm, related to flooding)
• change in the number of days categorised as a heatwave by the regional publich health authorities
• How much hotter the warmest day of the average year will be in future (in oC)

Additionally you can see the observed rainfall anomaly in 2019 (in mm/day). This analysis of projections was undertaken by Georgia Willits as part of her dissertation research for her Climate Change MSc at UCL Geography. The hexmap code was written by Open Innovations and deployed for this webpage by Hannah Woodward. Prof. Chris Brierley supervised the research.